Marketing Real Estate Developments in the New Economy

March 10th, 2010 No Comments »

Canadian builders broke ground on condominium and multiple-unit homes in February at a rate that exceeded the expectations of industry watchers.  New home construction has come back to life almost reaching the pre-recession levels of 2008.

The rebound in new housing is concentrated in the multi-unit sector of the market and particularly in Toronto according to CMHC.

Questions remain however about how rising interest rates, introduction of the HST and a sluggish job market in Ontario is going to effect sales of new condo units.   How will changing economic conditions impact real estate developers plans to sell condominiums in the later part of 2010.

In Toronto where the downtown skyline now bristles with new condo towers developers are vying for buyers.  It is  a market that is bound to become more, not less competitive.  Real estate developers who employ new ways of attracting interested purchasers are more likely to be the ones who can sell their condos at favorable prices.

David Allison, Partner in Vancouver based Braun/Allison specializes in the marketing of residential and resort developments.   He is currently working with Canadian firm MacDonald Developments marketing One Lexington, a condominium located in the hard hit Phoenix market.

At One Lexington Allison is applying new techniques for marketing real estate developments that he spells out in his book Sell The Truth.  He has used Marketing Journalism to promote the building as well as social media and other online opportunities to engage purchasers.

This is one example of many that Allison can draw upon to describe effective and targeted marketing campaigns for new condominium developments.

RENX is proud to have David Allison as a regular contributor to our website and also as the keynote speaker at our up and coming Breakfast Seminar in Toronto on March 29th that is going to be held at National Club at 303 Bay St downtown.

Along with David Allison, Hunter Milborne, Chairman of Sothebys International Realty Canada will talk about the Toronto condominium market and Jennifer Podmore Russell is presenting a Canadian real estate development forecast.

For more information and to register online for this event – $25 until March 19thvisit the Braun Allison sign-up page.

A birds’ eye view of Canadian Infrastructure

February 2nd, 2010 No Comments »

Canadian governments at all three levels are spending an unprecedented amount of public money on upgrading and replacing existing infrastructure as well as new construction projects.

How is the average person, really anyone besides the relatively few professionals directly involved in the daily activities associated with infrastructure, able to comprehend the extent and nature of the expenditure of billions of infrastructure dollars?   Do you know anyone who can articulate the rational for the allocation of funds across the country?  At best most people may be familiar with projects underway and proposed in their own municipality but another Province or City?

Those employed in the real estate industry, particularly the commercial sector, have more reason than the average taxpayer to monitor infrastructure news.  In the wake of many projects there is a trail of real estate related opportunities.  The classic case is installation of urban transit and transit stations, each a potential new residential and commercial hub.  There are many other examples; airports, roads, bridges, wind and solar farms where each type of project can generate an associated real estate requirements.

The RENX Canadian Infrastructure newsletter is a unique publication dedicated to assembling and prioritizing news available from on-line sources that provide information about this important topic.  Media sources across the country and government websites release news about infrastructure on a daily basis and RENX is gathering it into one place.

So far RENX has published three infrastructure newsletters.  With each new newsletter we are gaining experience with the character of the information available from this sector.  Later in 2010 we will restructure the newsletter with new headings to reflect this knowledge but for now, although the organization may be less than ideal,  it is still providing remarkable insight into Canadian Infrastructure.

Some simple questions with answers that can be derived from reading the newsletter are what type of infrastructure costs millions versus billions? Which projects take many years to build and which have shorter construction schedules?  When is infrastructure private,   public or P3. When is it a maintenance and replacement project versus new.  When is it a Municipal, Provincial or Federal undertaking and which are in Western and Eastern Canada?

One of RENX observations, to date,  is that in broad terms municipal projects tend to be smaller scale – in the millions – compared to most energy related projects – oil and gas, electrical transmission lines, nuclear power which are in the hundreds of millions and billions of dollars.  This may seem like an obvious conclusion however it is a question of scale of expenditure that helps put into perspective the appeal by the Mayors of Canada’s major cities to continue with a Federal municipal infrastructure budget beyond the current recession related stimulus spending.  More on this topic will be included in future blogs.

RENX Canadian Infrastructure newsletter provides a birds eye view of this dynamic and vital part of the national economy.   You can subscribe to electronic mail versions of our newsletters, all which are supported by advertising revenues and free to the reader, or read recent editions here.

Real Estate Investors Eyeing U.S. Bank Closures

December 15th, 2009 No Comments »

International property investors are keeping a close eye on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in the U.S. for notices about bank closures.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is an independent agency created by the Congress to maintain stability and public confidence in the nation’s financial system by: insuring deposits, examining and supervising financial institutions for safety and soundness and consumer protection, and managing receiverships.

At the Real Estate Forum, December 2, 2009, Michael McDonald, Managing Director, Eastdil Secured there are approximately 520 banks on the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) watch list because they are carrying excess debt, a large proportion of which is commercial real estate. Many of these banks are expected to fail over the next year.   There are about 8,000 banks in total in the U.S.

For investors there may be an opportunity to acquire real estate assets when banks are taken under the wing of the FDIC.   While many U.S. lending institutions have been extending loans to commercial real estate owners, regional banks in particular are reaching their limit with respect to being able to carry a lender in default.

The first page of the FDIC website provides a summary of Bank Closing Information that is updated regularly.

The Copenhagen Summit: Sleeping with a Dinosaur

December 6th, 2009 1 Comment »

The discussion at the last weeks Real Estate Forum in Toronto, attended by over 2,000 people, was dominated by the global financial crisis and its implications for the U.K., U.S. and Canadian economies. Throughout a three-day period, in spite of the impending Copenhagen Summit on climate change starting Monday December 7th, there was almost no mention of green buildings and sustainability.

Climate Change DinosaurA prominent theme of The Forum was the decoupling of the Canadian and U.S. economies particularly with respect to real estate. The superior policies and practices of the financial sector in Canada was frequently attributed with preventing an economic crisis here at the scale experienced in other parts of the World and in the U.S. in particular.

For the first time in history Canada seems to have broken free, at least temporarily, from the over bearing economic influence of the U.S. There was little discussion about ‘sleeping with the elephant’ to the south who seems to have been transformed into a far more fragile creature.

While there was a parallel green building conference at The Toronto Forum it is still surprising that climate change was barely raised. Silence on the issue prevailed despite the vast majority of individuals who believe the research pointing to a potential global environmental disaster.

Furthermore, the building sector is attributed with generating about 40% of the green house gas emissions that contribute to climate change. It is considered a sector where existing technologies can be readily applied to make significant and near term reductions in the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere.

The prominent companies represented at the real estate forum almost all have sophisticated sustainability programs. CB Richard Ellis is one of the first global companies to adopt a climate change strategy. Oxford Properties alone has one of the most admired initiatives in Canada to green its buildings and other major pension fund owned property companies have made similar commitments.

To allow the circumstances and issues of the current financial crisis to dominate the agenda with no mention of climate change issues may reflect a perilous denial of the global threat it represents. While the intangible nature of the danger makes it difficult to grapple with its enormity, and complexity of the problem and solution, avoidance is clearly not the answer.

The animal in our bed in Canada may no longer be the elephant to the south but the climate change dinosaur  – a dinosaur whose sleep we should all be aware of disturbing.

The Global Property Market: Highlight of the 2009 Real Estate Forum

November 30th, 2009 Comments Off

Last Friday’s news that Dubai World is not going make payments on US$ 59-billion in debts adds to a mélange of global economic factors influencing the World economy and in various ways directly and indirectly the Canadian real estate markets.

Imagine if this news were announced three years ago, in the absence of information about the financial crisis that has gripped the world for the past year. It would have hijacked almost any headline in Canada but this weekend the Grey Cup results and various domestic tragedies have already taken precedent. (Well in this case perhaps the Grey Cup trumps World Dubai. Phew! What a game!)

There are Canadian companies that are active in construction and development in the Middle East and some in Dubai who are likely severely impacted by the trouble at World Dubai and related companies. Canada’s expertise working in severe climates where extreme cold and hot have common characteristics is a valuable resource in the region. Other companies have invested and participated in development there to get a foothold in another part of the World and diversify their business.

What is particularly note worthy is that Dubai World’s distress is sandwiched between a year and half long financial crisis in the U.S. and the impending unwinding of billions of dollars of lousy commercial real estate debt in the U.S.

This U.S. financial crisis is highlighted by the failure of Lehmann Brothers, the take over of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, the largest bank failure in U.S. history with the collapse of Washington Mutual and the take over of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by the U.S. Government to mention the most significant of the events of the past year. In addition there is the provision of about a trillion of US dollars stimulus dollars and an annual US operating debt also of about a trillion dollars.

The other half of the sandwich is distressed commercial real estate debt in the U.S. It is considered to be in the area of U.S. $1.4 trillion dollars plus an additional $600 million in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities that are to come due over the next three years. Smaller banks that may not be able to carry the losses hold a significant portion of the debt.

Today we learned from a report in the Globe and Mail that the Toronto Dominion Bank may have as much as $19-billion invested in commercial real estate in the U.S., some of which is likely distressed, more than originally reported. There may be other Canadian financial organizations that may also announce that their financial position has worsened due to continuing declines in the value of U.S. commercial real estate. Individual Canadian investors not subject to public disclosure of their activities are no doubt affected.

The Global Property Market to be held tomorrow, December 1st, in Toronto where experts in the Worlds commercial real estate are presenting their perspective on these issues is sure to be a highly informative event.

Please check Twitter (RENXca) for RENX blow-by-blow coverage of the event. RENX will also be providing a follow-up article to the GPM this week.

Financial institutions can prevent a housing bubble

November 26th, 2009 1 Comment »

The warnings about the potential, if not the existence of a housing bubble in Canada are becoming more frequent and louder.

One of the most compelling and well informed warnings has come from Scotiabank economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes who have prepared a report titled Is There a Canadian Housing Bubble? The report substantiates its claim that the market is inflated by comparing the U.S. and Canadian markets using the U.S. S&P/Case Shiller as well as home ownership to the rental market.

The Scotiabank report then itemizes the influences that are going to continue to fuel the housing boom well into 2010 including low interest rates, a reduced supply of homes in the major cities, Vancouver and Toronto in particular, and availability of long-term mortgages.

The Scotiabank economists also note that the Canadian situation is distinctly different than in the U.S. where there is a larger subprime mortgage market, mortgage interest is tax deductible and there are lower appraisal standards. The Canadian market they report will not rise or fall to the same extent as the U.S.

ING Direct CEO Peter Aceto was also reported by YourHome this week to have said that some home buyers are acting irrationally and potentially taking on too much debt.

RBC reported that housing costs are becoming more expensive for the first time in a year and a half and that affordability will continue to deteriorate.

What isn’t apparent is if anyone is listening and if it will influence the decision making of prospective home owners and the real estate professionals who benefit from the heated market. In fact all reports suggest the exact opposite. Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa all have housing prices and sales that are climbing beyond all expectations.

When bubbles burst individuals are hurt, banks loose money and eventually all of society pays the price for the failures of a few. If Canada follows the route of the U.S., if only in part, Governments are also called upon to back stop the loses of the institutions and people effected.

Rather than watch the dynamics of this situation continue in a seemingly predictable pattern why not act now to prevent it.

The financial institutions who can so knowingly describe the trends can, if they were inclined, in the face of meaningful information act upon it. They can choose to not wait for interest rates to change, governments to legislate, shareholders and politicians to scream and simply change the policies that are facilitating unwise borrowing.

Canada’s financial institutions have gained the World’s respect for policies and practices that have kept our economy in better condition through the recession than almost all other countries. Lets not see their reputation diluted by indifference to this new economic threat to Canada and Canadians.

Feedback about the Canadian Infrastructure News

November 12th, 2009 No Comments »

RENX is in the process of preparing two new publications, a Listed Property Company newsletter and a Canadian Infrastructure newsletter.  These newsletters are part of two new channels we are launching on our recently opened website.

The Infrastructure news is anyone with a keen interest in Canada’s Infrastructure but primarily for professionals in the Canadian real estate industry.  We are planning to start regular publication of the newsletter in January 2010.

We are at the stage of defining what content will be included in the newsletter and how the content will be presented.

We are asking for the feedback from our readers.

A first preliminary version of a RENX Canadian Infrastructure newsletter has been published on our website on the ‘Recent Newsletters Page’.

To provide comments about the Infrastructure Newsletter you can send an email to the publisher
Ann White.

Feedback can also be provided on the RENX Forum.  Comments made in the Forum  will be direct to other readers for response.

Feedback about the Listed Property Company News

November 12th, 2009 No Comments »

RENX is in the process of preparing two new publications, a Canadian Listed Property Company newsletter and a Canadian Infrastructure newsletter.  These newsletters are part of two new channels we are launching on our recently opened website.

The Listed Property Company news is intended primarily for people who invest in Canadian listed properties companies and professionals in the Canadian real estate industry.   We welcome anyone with a keen interest in the topic to read RENX news.

We are planning to start regular publication of the newsletter in January 2010.

We are at the stage of defining what content will be included in the newsletter and how the content will be presented.

We are asking for the feedback from our readers.

A first preliminary version of a RENX Listed Property Company newsletter has been published on our website on the ‘Recent Newsletters Page’.

To provide comments about the Listed Property Newsletter you can send an email to the publisher Ann White.

Feedback can also be provided on the RENX Forum.  Comments made in the Forum  will be direct to other readers for response.

Five news channels for RENX new website

October 21st, 2009 No Comments »

With the launch of a new website RENX is taking a bold step toward changing how Canadian real estate professionals consider news about their industry.  The new website is offering five news channels: two new channels Infrastructure and Canadian listed properties in addition to the existing three channels: Commercial, Residential and Green Real Estate News.

As RENX broadens its scope of coverage, it is moving away from the narrow interpretation of ‘real estate’ made by main stream publishers.  Most news services target home owners with  a single ‘home and condo’ section. RENX’s intent is to redefine ‘real estate news’ to encompass the entire built environment by pulling together all the news on this topic into one online location.

Expanding into new industries with the launch of this website is a natural progression following from steps RENX has taken in the past.

RENX started  in 2001 with one channel  publishing as the Commercial Real Estate News (commercialrealestatenews.ca).  From the beginning RENX has provided an informative, thorough and edited summary of news available on the Internet for industry professionals.

In 2004 the Residential Real Estate News (residentialrealestatenews.ca) was launched as a venue for collecting news on that subject.

At that time concern about Environmental issues particularly climate change was gaining momentum.  Green Building Councils were forming in the U.S. and the Canadian Green Building Council had just been established in Canada.

With the RENX subscriber base in the thousands, the logistics of operating two separate websites and mailing lists from a desktop computer had run its course.  A more sophisticated database driven site with email list management services was required.

In 2005, the Real Estate News Exchange name was coined and site we very recently retired, first opened.  Shortly thereafter the Green Building News was added as a third channel.   The old RENX  website served as a sturdy and reliable platform that has delivered it to this point.

In 2009, RENX service has over 8,000 subscribers and serves up about 130,000 page views a month.  It has secured a place in the industry with a loyal following particularly among Commercial real estate professionals.

Now infrastructure issues and the increasing role of cities in the evolution of the built environment is driving news content.   Government expenditures on infrastructure stimulus spending has provided further reason for it to become a break away topic for RENX.

Over the last five years Canadian listed properties, particularly Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) but also Real Estate Operating Companies (REOC) have flourished as they are seen, in spite of recent economic events, as stable income producing securities by both individual and institutional investors.  It too has emerged as a topic with its own readership and deserving of dedicated attention.

If this wasn’t reason enough for a new website, changes in news publishing both print and online, social media, mobile devices, Blogs, changes in email news, content management software, each in their own way, are a compelling reason to launch a new RENX website.

Over the years, RENX has struggled with how to provide original content without compromising our existing news service.  Our most fervent hope for for the future is that we will finally be able to provide our own news stream.

Attracting sheer numbers of readers to a news site plays a significant role in its ability to attract more subscribers and generate advertising revenue.  We hope that the expanded scope will provide sufficient resources to hire professional writers on something more than an occasional basis.

Anyone who has developed a complex websites will understand that it can be an overwhelming task that takes months to plan and execute. I am happy to say it is almost finished.

I am grateful to have benefited from the sage advice and hard work of a talented team of software developers at Gossamer Threads in Vancouver.  I look forward to expanding RENX capability with them in the future.

It is terrific that opening day has finally arrived and I will shortly be able to return to writing and editing content for RENX.

RENX will be one of the topics addressed in this blog but its real focus will be to provide news, commentary and an editorial perspective on the Canadian built environment.  Please return to read RENX Writes.

Does more information equal greater transparency

October 12th, 2009 No Comments »

This week’s news about Canadian residential real estate housing trends is a good example of the overwhelming amount of data available on this topic.

One RENX edition of the Residential Weekly Newsletter included housing market information from ReMax, Coldwell Banker, Royal LePage, Statistics Canada, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the Canadian Real Estate Association, the Toronto Real Estate Board and Scotia Economics.

Information in this case refers to either a news release issued by a company or an article where their expertise is profiled in the report.

ReMax issued a news release that was an analysis of Canadian Real Estate Association data. A Google search on this topic generated 55 references. RENX selected 3 relevant articles including ReMax Canada News Wire Release for publication in the newsletter.

In Google  there were 67 news stories that referenced CREA, 171 concerning Statistics Canada and 32 news stories that refer to CMHC for a total of 270 articles.

RENX gladly accepts the task of narrowing down the news to a digestible and relevant selection on behalf of our readers. Furthermore one of the goals for the year ahead is to establish a reasoned and simple way of organizing and presenting this information. While we already do this to the best of our ability, we think it can be vastly improved.

Besides the sheer volume of information, another challenge is how various organizations present data. For example what is the definition of a home or a house? Is a house a duplex or semi-detached? Here again RENX is setting out to clarify these issues.

The amount of information, analysis and differences in the way data is presented in news releases and articles begs the question how many people truly understand what they are reading? Is is really contributing to the transparency of the market place? Is it written primarily for the business community or the consumer?

These are some of questions RENX plans to explore in the year ahead in the RENX Residential Newsletter.